I didn't update my blog as much as I'd have liked to over our Spring Break and last week but it was because basketball consumed most of my time. Seriously, this was my break schedule more or less and it's why I love the month of March. On Sunday, March 6, I went to see LIU-Brooklyn's 69-67 win over Central Connecticut State in the Semifinals of the NEC Tournament. The following day, I drove up to Bridgeport, Connecticut to watch the MAAC Championship game between the heavily favored Iona Gaels and St. Peter's Peacocks. St. Peter's played a great game the day before where they led top seeded Fairfield 40-15 at halftime. The spread going into the Iona game was 8. Even though they were underdogs, I still had a feeling Peter's had a decent chance to win and knew that Iona while a good team wasn't good enough to be favored by early double digits. I turned out to be right as St. Peter's seemed in control for much of the game. It was great to have a chance to see a Jersey team make the dance in person as they won 62-57. I got goosebumps at the end of the game watching guys like Nick Leon, Wesley Jenkins, Ryan Bacon, Jeron Belin and more celebrating at the end of the game. That was what March is all about. These kids have worked all season or in these 4 particular case 4 years to get where they were and they finally made it to the top of their league. This was a team 5-25 in their Freshman year with only 3 conference wins. So it was really a site to see and something I'll never forget.
The rest of the week I spent watching ball, mainly the Big East Tournament on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, I went down to Atlantic City for the second half of the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament and would stay down there for the Semis on Saturday. The bracket upon arrival was already messed up as #9 seed Dayton upset #1 seed Xavier and #12 seed St. Joseph's (who didn't have a conference win till Febbrary) defeated #4 seed Duquesne in overtime. That night I saw Temple as expected easily take care of business vs. in-city rival LaSalle 96-76 followed by a painfuly low scoring game between Richmond and Rhode Island in which Richmond won 55-45. Defensive performances like this however, have provided the spark needed for the Sweet 16 run they're currently on. By the way, 55-45 didn't seem too bad after I saw the 36-33 final between Penn State and Wisconsin that happened earlier that night. The following day I saw Dayton beat St. Joe's by 3 in a game that was not as close as the final score. It looked like Dayton might finally make up for their underacheiving seasons in the past 2 years in Chris Wright's senior season but they fell short to Richmond the following day, who I saw beat Temple on that Saturday, marking the first time that I have seen Temple lose in Atlantic City as they were 3 time champs. I was definitely a Richmond fan that day but they have since messed up my bracket and frankly, can't stand their hybrid Princeton offense where they struggle to score more than 60 points per game. I think Kansas should be able to take care of that. Lastly on Sunday, I drove down to Monmouth to take a bus to Loretto, Pennsylvania, roughly a 5 hour ride to see the NEC Women's Championship between Monmouth and St. Francis. Monmouth was competitive for the first 25 minutes of the game. They fell behind double digtis at hafltime but cut it to 4 early in the 2nd half from there, St. Francis wiped the Floor with them and wound up winning by 20. It was an enjoyable day though and the women have a bright future. I can easily see us winning next year and potentially repeating as well 2 years from now.
Now onto the discussion of the tournament itself. There have been a few surprises thus far in the tournament with the biggest probably being #11 seed VCU's consecutive 18 point wins over 6th seeded Georgetown and 3rd seeded Purdue after having to beat fellow 11 seed USC just to get into the field of 64. Richmond as a 12 upset perenially overseeded, overrated Vanderbilt who in 3 of the last 4 NCAA Tournaments, have lost to 13th seeded Siena by 21, another 13 seed Murray State at the buzzer and this year. Florida State also has to be considered a surprise as a 10 seed beating inconsistent but talented Texas A&M then destroying 2nd seed Notre Dame by 14 in a game that wasn't even that close. Florida State's top scorer only averages about 10 points per game, but like Richmond, they have a great defense that have helped them get this far. VCU and Florida State actually are playing each other to see who will make the Elite Eight and I think most people are shocked both have made it this far. Besides that the usual suspects, Duke, Ohio State, Kentucky, North Carolina, Connecticut, Arizona, Kansas, Florida, and Wisconsin are some of the other remaining teams. A couple of the other surprises are Marquette making the Sweet 16 as a 11 seed following wins over Xavier and Syracuse. San Diego State finally picked up their first tournament victory and soon followed that with a much harder earned victory over 7th seeded Temple. I don't know if they're much of a surprise anymore but Butler upset top seeded Pittsburgh in a controversial finish down the stretch with 2 fouls being called in the final 2.5 seconds. And BYU continues to prove doubters wrong with their breeze through the tournament so far with 2 solid wins over Wofford and Gonzaga. Many people had BYU losing to the Gonzaga/St Johns winner but the Cougars still look like they ahve a lot of fight in them and it is foolish to count out a team with a great player like Jimmer Fredette on it.
Onto the previews for tomorrow and Friday
#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Kentucky
Ohio State may very well be the best team in this field. They have tons of experince with their guards like David Light, William Buford and Jon Diebler, have probably the best freshman in America this year with Jared Sullinger. They have great perimeter shooting and are good in the post too, with some solid players on the bench. They do not have a lot of depth which is one of their bigger flaws, so one of their starters can not afford to get into foul trouble. Kentucky as what has seemingly become a trademark of John Calipari teams in recent years are predomianntly freshman guards who while good, are not the quality that his players such as John Wall were last year. Guys like Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb are more athletic than those players alst year, but not as prolific scorers. I think Ohio State is too battle tested with their seniors and Sullinger is the best player on the floor Friday night. But Kentucky has enoguh talent to hang around. I'll take Ohio State by 6.
#2 North Carolina vs. #11 Marquette
Let me just start by saying and this is a big if but if Carolina's players like Harrison Barnes stick around more than just this year, they will win the NCAA Touranment within the next 2 years. I like this Tar Heel team a lot. They are a good combination of guards like Dexter Strickland and Kendall Marshall, but where they really thrive is with their forwards like Tyler Zeller who is a very tall player but also runs great and sometime leads all 10 guys down the court for easy dunks. Harrison Barnes who was a preseason all american first team pick and John Henson. I like Kendall Marshall because he is the kind of player that makes your team better but is also ready to step up and take some big shots. He is the kind of player that can't be unnerved and you love to see that in a freshman. The other day he had 14 assists like it was nothing. They are a solid defensive team too and do a good job blocking and rebounding. Marquette besides the D-Wade years are a team that generally doesn't do anything great. They usually have good guard play as shown with guys like Darius Johnson-Odom and Dwight Buycks this year, but never do a great job on the defensive side. They are usually shorter compared to many of their opponents and let their opponents score seemingly at will. If they do not get a good shooting day here, they will probably lose this game. As it is, I like Carolina by close to double digits. They are too talented and a little too deep for a team like Marquette to handle and Carolina has to know and play like they're getting a gift here too by not having to play a more talented team like Syracuse but rather an 11 seed.
#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona
This very well could be the game of the Sweet 16. Duke is coming off a close one vs. the Michigan Wolverines while Arizona is coming off a controversial 1 point win over 4th seeded Texas. Duke has the key piece back to improve their chances of a run to the championship in point guard Kyrie Irving. Duke has a little more experience with guard Nolan Smith and forward Kyle Singler returning from last year's championship team. Their new guys such as Seth Curry (Stephen's younger brother) and Irving make a tremendous impact on this team as well. The Plumlee Brothers down low add a lot of size for defense and rebounding as well. Arizona has kind of fallen off the college basketball national radar as last year was the first time in 25 years that they did not make the tournament. They have one of the best young coaches in the nation with Sean Miller, who used to be a head coach at Xavier, and led them to Sweet 16 (and further) appearances as both head and assistant coach. In 2004, Xavier lost to Duke in the Elite Eight with Miller as assistant coach. The Wildcats have a lot of depth in the backcourt with MoMo Jones, Kyle Fogg, and Kevin Parrom all averaging 9.5, 8.1 and 7.8 ppg respectively, while dishing out a couple assists a game a piece. This could very well be sophomore forward Derrick Williams coming out party. He is from La Mirada, California and is expected to have 40 family members or so at the game. He averages 19 points and 8 rebounds a game and is a good inside and outside player. He hits threes at a 58 percent clip. They have a bit of depth there too which I think could make a bit of a difference tonight. This should be a hell of a game and I've had Arizona beating Duke in my backet all along and think they still will win, in a classic by a point, 79-78. I expect Arizona's players to do just a good enough job with rebounding and defense for them to come out of Anaheim(which could make a difference too since Tucson is a lot closer than Durham) with a W.
#2 San Diego State vs. #3 Connecticut
The San Diego State Aztecs have been waiting for this moment all season. They don't play anyone. They're not impressive. They can't make a deep run in this tournament. They will have a chance tonight against Jim Calhoun's Huskies. San Diego State is as balanced of a team as there is in the country and a few of their players have had big games this season, whether it was star Kawhi Leonard, D.J. Gay, Billy White, Chase Tapley or Malcolm Thomas. They are a deeper team than Connecticut and a more veteran team than Connecticut and I expect that to pay off here. They have played against the best player in the nation in Jimmer Fredette so will likely be prepared to face a similar player in Kemba Walker. Another big difference here is the fact that not only has UCONN played 7 games in 12 days, but they also now must play a game 3,000 miles away in their opposing team's backyard off a very unimpressive victory vs. Temple. I think UCONN's magic runs out tonight. If Kemba is not firing on all cylinders, I can see SD State even making a statement tonight and beating them by more than they should. As long as San Diego State can do a good job of rebounding against 6'9 Alex Oriakhi and 7'0 Charles Okwandu, I like their chances here. The experience, balance and depth should pay off here as well as a great opportunity to prove all the doubters wrong. The game in Anaheim doesn't hurt either.
#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond
Kansas I believe is on a mission this year to avenge their shocking second round exit to Northern Iowa last year. I think this team will win the tournament, but add to the fact that their bracket is the one that exploded this year with the 2,3,4 and 5 seeds all being eliminated. There is NO EXCUSE for them not to at least make the final four and considering the final four team they'd play is either Butler,Wisconsin,BYU or Florida who they're better then, they should at the very least make the championship. There is no way around it, KU is a much better all-around team. They are more athletic, have more height, better shooters, better guards and post players. They are also a deeper team. Where Richmond may have an advantage is their deliberate, smart offensive play which is a hybrid of Pete Carrill's Princeton offense. Coach Mooney played at Princeton and he has instilled what he learned in this Spiders team. The problem with that though is that this team struggles to score. Like I mentioned earlier, I saw them win a 55-45 game. They in all likelihood are not going to be able to play that kind of game against the Jayhawks, which likely spells trouble for them since they will not beat KU in a fast paced and high scoring game. They key is how well Richmond starts. If they start like Cornell did vs. Kentucky last year they could be in trouble quickly. But if they keep it like 10-8 8 minutes into the game or something, this could get interesting. Overall the Jayhawks are a much better team with the Morris Brothers, Tyshawn Taylor and crew and should have no problem in beating this Cinderella. This is a team that I don't think will be denied this year and there run won't again be ruined by a mid major. Kansas by 15-20.
#10 Florida State vs. #11 VCU
Bet you had this one. I don't think anyone I know had both these teams getting past the first game let alone both in the 2nd round. Florida State beat Texas A&M and Notre Dame to get here. VCU beat USC in the play-in game and then dismantled both Georgetown and Purdue by 18 points each. VCU was one of the last teams in which obviously is a similarity to another Colonial Athletic Association team 5 years ago that made the final four in George Mason. Everyone doubted their qualifications coming into the tournament but they showed they deserved to be there which is exactly what this Rams team has done thus far this year. Florida State has held their opponents to 50 and 57 so far. This is going to be a defensive game in all likelihood and will be a fun one because neither expected to be here and the winner is making a shocking run to the Elite Eight. Both teams will play their hearts out and leave it on the floor. It will be a grind it out game. Florida State is a team in the truest sense of the word. Its team's top scorer averages around 10 a game. They rely on team play and defense to get wins and it works. Personally I believe VCU's steam is due to run out against better talent and regardless the winner is in for a very rough game against Kansas. Tough to go against a power conference school this far in and VCU prior to last week was somewhat inconsistent. I'll take Florida State but not to cover the 5 pt spread or so.
#8 Butler vs. #4 Wisconsin
This should be an old school matchup with defense being the theme. I have so much respect for what Brad Stevens has done at Butler. A lot of people doubt they could duplicate what they did last year and yet they are well on their way to doing it. I think they are a little overseeded at 8 because in my opinion, had they lost the Horizon League Championship to Wisconsin-Milwaukee (which would've been their 3rd loss to them this season) they wouldn't have gotten in. But nonetheless they retain a lot of the core that made the championship game last season and no one's play on Butler has been as smart as Matt Howard. The kid's playing like he's a senior and wants to end it on a good note. In game 1 against Old Dominion, a team many thought they would lose to, he caught an airball and laid it in at the buzzer for a 2 point win. And over the weekend in what might be the game of this year's tournament, in a tied game with 0.1 of a second left Howard had the ball and flipped it in the air hoping to get a foul call and did and wound up making 1 to defeat top seeded Pittsburgh. Shelvin Mack is a great shooter as well and a big reason Butler is back in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin as well is playing like a team that feels they have to prove their critics wrong. They were a laughing stock after losing to Penn State in the Big 10 Tournament 36-33. Many people were picking them to lose to Belmont, Utah State or Kansas State but they have made it here due to their tough defense and solid inside game. Butler has more of an inside game this year than they ahd last year while Wisconsin is more of a perimeter team than they usually are. Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil are forwards for the Badgers with an inside game but are solid jumpshooters as well. The game could very well come in the hands of point guard Jordan Taylor's play who played poorly against the Kansas State Wildcats. I'll take Wisconsin in a slow paced close one, 58-54.
#3 BYU vs. #2 Florida
I expect Jimmer Fredette to have a great game, potentially in the 40s or even 50s and silence critics who say he can't play against power conference opponents. I feel he will get just enough help tonight for them to advance against an overrated and relatively unproven Florida Gators team. They don't do anything particularly great and to me are overseeded as a 2. BYU exposes them tonight with a 8 point win.
Anyways, time for the games. Should be a fun night.
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