I didn't update my blog as much as I'd have liked to over our Spring Break and last week but it was because basketball consumed most of my time. Seriously, this was my break schedule more or less and it's why I love the month of March. On Sunday, March 6, I went to see LIU-Brooklyn's 69-67 win over Central Connecticut State in the Semifinals of the NEC Tournament. The following day, I drove up to Bridgeport, Connecticut to watch the MAAC Championship game between the heavily favored Iona Gaels and St. Peter's Peacocks. St. Peter's played a great game the day before where they led top seeded Fairfield 40-15 at halftime. The spread going into the Iona game was 8. Even though they were underdogs, I still had a feeling Peter's had a decent chance to win and knew that Iona while a good team wasn't good enough to be favored by early double digits. I turned out to be right as St. Peter's seemed in control for much of the game. It was great to have a chance to see a Jersey team make the dance in person as they won 62-57. I got goosebumps at the end of the game watching guys like Nick Leon, Wesley Jenkins, Ryan Bacon, Jeron Belin and more celebrating at the end of the game. That was what March is all about. These kids have worked all season or in these 4 particular case 4 years to get where they were and they finally made it to the top of their league. This was a team 5-25 in their Freshman year with only 3 conference wins. So it was really a site to see and something I'll never forget.
The rest of the week I spent watching ball, mainly the Big East Tournament on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, I went down to Atlantic City for the second half of the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament and would stay down there for the Semis on Saturday. The bracket upon arrival was already messed up as #9 seed Dayton upset #1 seed Xavier and #12 seed St. Joseph's (who didn't have a conference win till Febbrary) defeated #4 seed Duquesne in overtime. That night I saw Temple as expected easily take care of business vs. in-city rival LaSalle 96-76 followed by a painfuly low scoring game between Richmond and Rhode Island in which Richmond won 55-45. Defensive performances like this however, have provided the spark needed for the Sweet 16 run they're currently on. By the way, 55-45 didn't seem too bad after I saw the 36-33 final between Penn State and Wisconsin that happened earlier that night. The following day I saw Dayton beat St. Joe's by 3 in a game that was not as close as the final score. It looked like Dayton might finally make up for their underacheiving seasons in the past 2 years in Chris Wright's senior season but they fell short to Richmond the following day, who I saw beat Temple on that Saturday, marking the first time that I have seen Temple lose in Atlantic City as they were 3 time champs. I was definitely a Richmond fan that day but they have since messed up my bracket and frankly, can't stand their hybrid Princeton offense where they struggle to score more than 60 points per game. I think Kansas should be able to take care of that. Lastly on Sunday, I drove down to Monmouth to take a bus to Loretto, Pennsylvania, roughly a 5 hour ride to see the NEC Women's Championship between Monmouth and St. Francis. Monmouth was competitive for the first 25 minutes of the game. They fell behind double digtis at hafltime but cut it to 4 early in the 2nd half from there, St. Francis wiped the Floor with them and wound up winning by 20. It was an enjoyable day though and the women have a bright future. I can easily see us winning next year and potentially repeating as well 2 years from now.
Now onto the discussion of the tournament itself. There have been a few surprises thus far in the tournament with the biggest probably being #11 seed VCU's consecutive 18 point wins over 6th seeded Georgetown and 3rd seeded Purdue after having to beat fellow 11 seed USC just to get into the field of 64. Richmond as a 12 upset perenially overseeded, overrated Vanderbilt who in 3 of the last 4 NCAA Tournaments, have lost to 13th seeded Siena by 21, another 13 seed Murray State at the buzzer and this year. Florida State also has to be considered a surprise as a 10 seed beating inconsistent but talented Texas A&M then destroying 2nd seed Notre Dame by 14 in a game that wasn't even that close. Florida State's top scorer only averages about 10 points per game, but like Richmond, they have a great defense that have helped them get this far. VCU and Florida State actually are playing each other to see who will make the Elite Eight and I think most people are shocked both have made it this far. Besides that the usual suspects, Duke, Ohio State, Kentucky, North Carolina, Connecticut, Arizona, Kansas, Florida, and Wisconsin are some of the other remaining teams. A couple of the other surprises are Marquette making the Sweet 16 as a 11 seed following wins over Xavier and Syracuse. San Diego State finally picked up their first tournament victory and soon followed that with a much harder earned victory over 7th seeded Temple. I don't know if they're much of a surprise anymore but Butler upset top seeded Pittsburgh in a controversial finish down the stretch with 2 fouls being called in the final 2.5 seconds. And BYU continues to prove doubters wrong with their breeze through the tournament so far with 2 solid wins over Wofford and Gonzaga. Many people had BYU losing to the Gonzaga/St Johns winner but the Cougars still look like they ahve a lot of fight in them and it is foolish to count out a team with a great player like Jimmer Fredette on it.
Onto the previews for tomorrow and Friday
#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Kentucky
Ohio State may very well be the best team in this field. They have tons of experince with their guards like David Light, William Buford and Jon Diebler, have probably the best freshman in America this year with Jared Sullinger. They have great perimeter shooting and are good in the post too, with some solid players on the bench. They do not have a lot of depth which is one of their bigger flaws, so one of their starters can not afford to get into foul trouble. Kentucky as what has seemingly become a trademark of John Calipari teams in recent years are predomianntly freshman guards who while good, are not the quality that his players such as John Wall were last year. Guys like Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb are more athletic than those players alst year, but not as prolific scorers. I think Ohio State is too battle tested with their seniors and Sullinger is the best player on the floor Friday night. But Kentucky has enoguh talent to hang around. I'll take Ohio State by 6.
#2 North Carolina vs. #11 Marquette
Let me just start by saying and this is a big if but if Carolina's players like Harrison Barnes stick around more than just this year, they will win the NCAA Touranment within the next 2 years. I like this Tar Heel team a lot. They are a good combination of guards like Dexter Strickland and Kendall Marshall, but where they really thrive is with their forwards like Tyler Zeller who is a very tall player but also runs great and sometime leads all 10 guys down the court for easy dunks. Harrison Barnes who was a preseason all american first team pick and John Henson. I like Kendall Marshall because he is the kind of player that makes your team better but is also ready to step up and take some big shots. He is the kind of player that can't be unnerved and you love to see that in a freshman. The other day he had 14 assists like it was nothing. They are a solid defensive team too and do a good job blocking and rebounding. Marquette besides the D-Wade years are a team that generally doesn't do anything great. They usually have good guard play as shown with guys like Darius Johnson-Odom and Dwight Buycks this year, but never do a great job on the defensive side. They are usually shorter compared to many of their opponents and let their opponents score seemingly at will. If they do not get a good shooting day here, they will probably lose this game. As it is, I like Carolina by close to double digits. They are too talented and a little too deep for a team like Marquette to handle and Carolina has to know and play like they're getting a gift here too by not having to play a more talented team like Syracuse but rather an 11 seed.
#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona
This very well could be the game of the Sweet 16. Duke is coming off a close one vs. the Michigan Wolverines while Arizona is coming off a controversial 1 point win over 4th seeded Texas. Duke has the key piece back to improve their chances of a run to the championship in point guard Kyrie Irving. Duke has a little more experience with guard Nolan Smith and forward Kyle Singler returning from last year's championship team. Their new guys such as Seth Curry (Stephen's younger brother) and Irving make a tremendous impact on this team as well. The Plumlee Brothers down low add a lot of size for defense and rebounding as well. Arizona has kind of fallen off the college basketball national radar as last year was the first time in 25 years that they did not make the tournament. They have one of the best young coaches in the nation with Sean Miller, who used to be a head coach at Xavier, and led them to Sweet 16 (and further) appearances as both head and assistant coach. In 2004, Xavier lost to Duke in the Elite Eight with Miller as assistant coach. The Wildcats have a lot of depth in the backcourt with MoMo Jones, Kyle Fogg, and Kevin Parrom all averaging 9.5, 8.1 and 7.8 ppg respectively, while dishing out a couple assists a game a piece. This could very well be sophomore forward Derrick Williams coming out party. He is from La Mirada, California and is expected to have 40 family members or so at the game. He averages 19 points and 8 rebounds a game and is a good inside and outside player. He hits threes at a 58 percent clip. They have a bit of depth there too which I think could make a bit of a difference tonight. This should be a hell of a game and I've had Arizona beating Duke in my backet all along and think they still will win, in a classic by a point, 79-78. I expect Arizona's players to do just a good enough job with rebounding and defense for them to come out of Anaheim(which could make a difference too since Tucson is a lot closer than Durham) with a W.
#2 San Diego State vs. #3 Connecticut
The San Diego State Aztecs have been waiting for this moment all season. They don't play anyone. They're not impressive. They can't make a deep run in this tournament. They will have a chance tonight against Jim Calhoun's Huskies. San Diego State is as balanced of a team as there is in the country and a few of their players have had big games this season, whether it was star Kawhi Leonard, D.J. Gay, Billy White, Chase Tapley or Malcolm Thomas. They are a deeper team than Connecticut and a more veteran team than Connecticut and I expect that to pay off here. They have played against the best player in the nation in Jimmer Fredette so will likely be prepared to face a similar player in Kemba Walker. Another big difference here is the fact that not only has UCONN played 7 games in 12 days, but they also now must play a game 3,000 miles away in their opposing team's backyard off a very unimpressive victory vs. Temple. I think UCONN's magic runs out tonight. If Kemba is not firing on all cylinders, I can see SD State even making a statement tonight and beating them by more than they should. As long as San Diego State can do a good job of rebounding against 6'9 Alex Oriakhi and 7'0 Charles Okwandu, I like their chances here. The experience, balance and depth should pay off here as well as a great opportunity to prove all the doubters wrong. The game in Anaheim doesn't hurt either.
#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond
Kansas I believe is on a mission this year to avenge their shocking second round exit to Northern Iowa last year. I think this team will win the tournament, but add to the fact that their bracket is the one that exploded this year with the 2,3,4 and 5 seeds all being eliminated. There is NO EXCUSE for them not to at least make the final four and considering the final four team they'd play is either Butler,Wisconsin,BYU or Florida who they're better then, they should at the very least make the championship. There is no way around it, KU is a much better all-around team. They are more athletic, have more height, better shooters, better guards and post players. They are also a deeper team. Where Richmond may have an advantage is their deliberate, smart offensive play which is a hybrid of Pete Carrill's Princeton offense. Coach Mooney played at Princeton and he has instilled what he learned in this Spiders team. The problem with that though is that this team struggles to score. Like I mentioned earlier, I saw them win a 55-45 game. They in all likelihood are not going to be able to play that kind of game against the Jayhawks, which likely spells trouble for them since they will not beat KU in a fast paced and high scoring game. They key is how well Richmond starts. If they start like Cornell did vs. Kentucky last year they could be in trouble quickly. But if they keep it like 10-8 8 minutes into the game or something, this could get interesting. Overall the Jayhawks are a much better team with the Morris Brothers, Tyshawn Taylor and crew and should have no problem in beating this Cinderella. This is a team that I don't think will be denied this year and there run won't again be ruined by a mid major. Kansas by 15-20.
#10 Florida State vs. #11 VCU
Bet you had this one. I don't think anyone I know had both these teams getting past the first game let alone both in the 2nd round. Florida State beat Texas A&M and Notre Dame to get here. VCU beat USC in the play-in game and then dismantled both Georgetown and Purdue by 18 points each. VCU was one of the last teams in which obviously is a similarity to another Colonial Athletic Association team 5 years ago that made the final four in George Mason. Everyone doubted their qualifications coming into the tournament but they showed they deserved to be there which is exactly what this Rams team has done thus far this year. Florida State has held their opponents to 50 and 57 so far. This is going to be a defensive game in all likelihood and will be a fun one because neither expected to be here and the winner is making a shocking run to the Elite Eight. Both teams will play their hearts out and leave it on the floor. It will be a grind it out game. Florida State is a team in the truest sense of the word. Its team's top scorer averages around 10 a game. They rely on team play and defense to get wins and it works. Personally I believe VCU's steam is due to run out against better talent and regardless the winner is in for a very rough game against Kansas. Tough to go against a power conference school this far in and VCU prior to last week was somewhat inconsistent. I'll take Florida State but not to cover the 5 pt spread or so.
#8 Butler vs. #4 Wisconsin
This should be an old school matchup with defense being the theme. I have so much respect for what Brad Stevens has done at Butler. A lot of people doubt they could duplicate what they did last year and yet they are well on their way to doing it. I think they are a little overseeded at 8 because in my opinion, had they lost the Horizon League Championship to Wisconsin-Milwaukee (which would've been their 3rd loss to them this season) they wouldn't have gotten in. But nonetheless they retain a lot of the core that made the championship game last season and no one's play on Butler has been as smart as Matt Howard. The kid's playing like he's a senior and wants to end it on a good note. In game 1 against Old Dominion, a team many thought they would lose to, he caught an airball and laid it in at the buzzer for a 2 point win. And over the weekend in what might be the game of this year's tournament, in a tied game with 0.1 of a second left Howard had the ball and flipped it in the air hoping to get a foul call and did and wound up making 1 to defeat top seeded Pittsburgh. Shelvin Mack is a great shooter as well and a big reason Butler is back in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin as well is playing like a team that feels they have to prove their critics wrong. They were a laughing stock after losing to Penn State in the Big 10 Tournament 36-33. Many people were picking them to lose to Belmont, Utah State or Kansas State but they have made it here due to their tough defense and solid inside game. Butler has more of an inside game this year than they ahd last year while Wisconsin is more of a perimeter team than they usually are. Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil are forwards for the Badgers with an inside game but are solid jumpshooters as well. The game could very well come in the hands of point guard Jordan Taylor's play who played poorly against the Kansas State Wildcats. I'll take Wisconsin in a slow paced close one, 58-54.
#3 BYU vs. #2 Florida
I expect Jimmer Fredette to have a great game, potentially in the 40s or even 50s and silence critics who say he can't play against power conference opponents. I feel he will get just enough help tonight for them to advance against an overrated and relatively unproven Florida Gators team. They don't do anything particularly great and to me are overseeded as a 2. BYU exposes them tonight with a 8 point win.
Anyways, time for the games. Should be a fun night.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Groups I, III and Non-Public A Quarterfinal Predictions/Conference Tourney Predictions
Through the first 3 days of the state tournament, here's how I'm doing so far.
31-1 in Group I games
41-7 in Group II games
25-7 in Group III games
39-9 in Group IV games
9-1 in Non-Public A games
8-2 in Non-Public B games
153-27 overall
Last night, almost everything went to plan. There were 2 major upsets though with my upset pick East Orange coming out on top in overtime against Columbia. South Group IV favorite Cherry Hill East also lost. Onto my picks for tonight...
North I, Group I
1)Wood-Ridge-22.5 over 9) Palisades Park
4)Wallington-4 over 12) Leonia
3)Cresskill-8.5 over 11) Midland Park
15)Ridgefield+3.5 over 7) Park Ridge
North II, Group I
8)Hoboken-8.5 over 1) Dayton
4)Newark Vocational-7.5 over 12) Whippany Park
3)University-11.5 over 6) North 13th Street Tech
2)New Providence-11 over 10) Bloomfield Tech
Central, Group I
9)Point Pleasant Beach-18.5 over 1) Bound Brook
4)Asbury Park-1.5 over 5) Florence
3)New Egypt-19 over 11) Metuchen
7)Burlington City-7.5 over 2) Piscataway Tech
South, Group I
1)Pitman-19 over 9) Haddon Township
5)Paulsboro-19 over 4) Gloucester City
3)Lindenwold+0.5 over 6) Salem
2)Penns Grove-9 over 7) Woodbury
North I, Group III
16)Wayne Hills-1 over 8) Passaic Valley
12)Wayne Valley-4 over 13) Demarest
3)Pascack Valley-5.5 over 11) Sparta
2)Teaneck-18 over 7) Ramapo
North II, Group III
9)Plainfield-17 over 1) Somerville
4)Rahway-4.5 over 5) West Morris
11)ColoniaPK over 3) Mendham
2)Newark East Side-12.5 over 7) Scotch Plains
Central, Group III
1)Colts Neck-9.5 over 9) Princeton
5)Hamilton+3.5 over 13) Northern Burlington
3)Burlington Twp.-10.5 over 11) Monmouth Regional
2)Neptune-16.5 over 7) Freehold Boro
South, Group III
1)Kingsway-12.5 over 9) Highland Regional
5)Central Regional+2 over 4) Ocean City
3)Lacey-5 over 6) Deptford
7)Pemberton-6 over 2) Manchester Township
Non-Public North A
1)Seton Hall Prep-4.5 over 8) Paramus Catholic
13)Union Catholic-5.5 over 5) Queen of Peace
7)Roselle Catholic-8 over 2) Don Bosco Prep
3)St. Peter's-11 over 6) Delbarton
Non-Public South A
8)Bishop Eustace+1 over 1) St. Augustine
4)St. Joe's Metuchen+5.5 over 5) CBA
6)Camden Catholic+3.5 over 3) Holy Spirit
2)Paul VI-15 over 7) Red Bank Catholic
Game of the Day:
5)CBA at 4) St. Joe's Metuchen
Honorable Mentions:5)Florence at 4) Asbury Park
6)Salem at 3) Lindenwold
11)Colonia at 3) Mendham
8)Bishop Eustace at 1) St. Augustine
6)Camden Catholic at 3) Holy Spirit
Upset of the Day:
Don't really consider it an upset but it would be according to Born Power Index...
4) St. Joe's Metuchen over 5) CBA.
Now onto the college hardwood...
2-0 Atlantic Sun Quarterfinals
3-1 Big South Quarterfinals
4-0 Horizon League First Round
0-2 Ohio Valley First Round
4-0 Patriot League Quarterfinals
13-3 overall
America East Play-in Game
9)Binghamton over 8) UMBC
Big South Semifinals
7)High Point over 3) UNC-Asheville
1)Coastla Carolina over 4) VMI
Missouri Valley Opening Round
9)Illinois State over 8) Southern Illinois
7)Drake over 10) Bradley
Northeast Conference Quarterfinals
1)Long Island over 8) St. Francis (PA)
5)St. Francis (NY) over 4) Central Connecticut State
3)Robert Morris over 6) Wagner
2)Quinnipiac over 7) Mount St. Mary's
Ohio Valley Quarterfinals
4)Tennessee Tech over 8) UT-Martin
3)Austin Peay over 7) SE Missouri State
31-1 in Group I games
41-7 in Group II games
25-7 in Group III games
39-9 in Group IV games
9-1 in Non-Public A games
8-2 in Non-Public B games
153-27 overall
Last night, almost everything went to plan. There were 2 major upsets though with my upset pick East Orange coming out on top in overtime against Columbia. South Group IV favorite Cherry Hill East also lost. Onto my picks for tonight...
North I, Group I
1)Wood-Ridge-22.5 over 9) Palisades Park
4)Wallington-4 over 12) Leonia
3)Cresskill-8.5 over 11) Midland Park
15)Ridgefield+3.5 over 7) Park Ridge
North II, Group I
8)Hoboken-8.5 over 1) Dayton
4)Newark Vocational-7.5 over 12) Whippany Park
3)University-11.5 over 6) North 13th Street Tech
2)New Providence-11 over 10) Bloomfield Tech
Central, Group I
9)Point Pleasant Beach-18.5 over 1) Bound Brook
4)Asbury Park-1.5 over 5) Florence
3)New Egypt-19 over 11) Metuchen
7)Burlington City-7.5 over 2) Piscataway Tech
South, Group I
1)Pitman-19 over 9) Haddon Township
5)Paulsboro-19 over 4) Gloucester City
3)Lindenwold+0.5 over 6) Salem
2)Penns Grove-9 over 7) Woodbury
North I, Group III
16)Wayne Hills-1 over 8) Passaic Valley
12)Wayne Valley-4 over 13) Demarest
3)Pascack Valley-5.5 over 11) Sparta
2)Teaneck-18 over 7) Ramapo
North II, Group III
9)Plainfield-17 over 1) Somerville
4)Rahway-4.5 over 5) West Morris
11)ColoniaPK over 3) Mendham
2)Newark East Side-12.5 over 7) Scotch Plains
Central, Group III
1)Colts Neck-9.5 over 9) Princeton
5)Hamilton+3.5 over 13) Northern Burlington
3)Burlington Twp.-10.5 over 11) Monmouth Regional
2)Neptune-16.5 over 7) Freehold Boro
South, Group III
1)Kingsway-12.5 over 9) Highland Regional
5)Central Regional+2 over 4) Ocean City
3)Lacey-5 over 6) Deptford
7)Pemberton-6 over 2) Manchester Township
Non-Public North A
1)Seton Hall Prep-4.5 over 8) Paramus Catholic
13)Union Catholic-5.5 over 5) Queen of Peace
7)Roselle Catholic-8 over 2) Don Bosco Prep
3)St. Peter's-11 over 6) Delbarton
Non-Public South A
8)Bishop Eustace+1 over 1) St. Augustine
4)St. Joe's Metuchen+5.5 over 5) CBA
6)Camden Catholic+3.5 over 3) Holy Spirit
2)Paul VI-15 over 7) Red Bank Catholic
Game of the Day:
5)CBA at 4) St. Joe's Metuchen
Honorable Mentions:5)Florence at 4) Asbury Park
6)Salem at 3) Lindenwold
11)Colonia at 3) Mendham
8)Bishop Eustace at 1) St. Augustine
6)Camden Catholic at 3) Holy Spirit
Upset of the Day:
Don't really consider it an upset but it would be according to Born Power Index...
4) St. Joe's Metuchen over 5) CBA.
Now onto the college hardwood...
2-0 Atlantic Sun Quarterfinals
3-1 Big South Quarterfinals
4-0 Horizon League First Round
0-2 Ohio Valley First Round
4-0 Patriot League Quarterfinals
13-3 overall
America East Play-in Game
9)Binghamton over 8) UMBC
Big South Semifinals
7)High Point over 3) UNC-Asheville
1)Coastla Carolina over 4) VMI
Missouri Valley Opening Round
9)Illinois State over 8) Southern Illinois
7)Drake over 10) Bradley
Northeast Conference Quarterfinals
1)Long Island over 8) St. Francis (PA)
5)St. Francis (NY) over 4) Central Connecticut State
3)Robert Morris over 6) Wagner
2)Quinnipiac over 7) Mount St. Mary's
Ohio Valley Quarterfinals
4)Tennessee Tech over 8) UT-Martin
3)Austin Peay over 7) SE Missouri State
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Groups II and IV Predictions Second Round/Conference Tourney Predictions
Sorry once again that I was unable to post yesterday. The internet at my house is currently down till Friday and the only computers I'm able to access is at school. To make matters worse, my house had no heat either for the last 2 days so we were staying in 50 degree weather. Anyway, I'll catch everything up to this point and hopefully everything will be smooth sailing from here.
Group I Predictions
North I-7-1
North II-8-0
Central-8-0
South 8-0
31-1 Overall
Group II Predictions
North I-8-0
North II-7-1
Central-8-0
South-7-1
30-2 Overall
Group III Predictions
North I-5-3
North II-7-1
Central-7-1
South 6-2
25-7 Overall
Group IV Predictions
North I-7-1
North II-6-2
Central-? Can't find result for Jackson/Howell Game (either 6-2/7-1)
South-8-0
27-5/28-4
Non-Public North A Predictions
5-1
Non-Public South A Predictions
4-0
Non-Public South B Predictions
1-0
123-16/124-15 Overall
Yesterday also started the College Basketball Conference Tournament Season in the Big South and Horizon Leagues. There was a huge upset as #7 seed High Point took down #2 seed Liberty. Coastal Carolina at 27-4 certainly looks like even more of a lock now to go into the NCAA tourney for their first time in nearly 20 years.
3-1 Big South Quarterfinals
4-0 Horizon League First Round
7-1 Overall
Now onto today's picks in Group II, Group IV and Non-Public B as well as my picks for tonight's conference tournament games.
North I, Group II
1)Pascack Hills-5.5 over 8) Englewood
4)Elmwood Park+1 over 5) Hopatcong
6)Manchester Regional-12 over 3) Mountain Lakes
2)Pequannock-12 over 10) Lenape Valley
North II, Group II
1)Newark Central-18.5 over 8) Cliffside Park
13)West Essex+0.5 over 5) Rutherford
3)Ridgefield Park-7.5 over 11) Hanover Park
10)Newark Tech+2.5 over 2) Madison
Central, Group II
1)Raritan-11.5 over 8) Matawan
5)Shabazz-7 over 4) Governor Livingston
6)Carteret+3 over 3) Rumson
2)Ewing-15 over 7) Roselle
South, Group II
16)Bridgeton-2.5 over 9) Pt. Boro
4)Collingswood+4 over 5) Medford Tech
6)Haddonfield-9.5 over 3) Cinnaminson
2)Middle Twp.-20.5 over 7) Willingboro
North I, Group IV
9)Paterson Eastside-7.5 over 1) Livingston
4)Roxbury-4 over 12) Union City
11)Montclair-5 over 14) Ridgewood
10)Paterson Kennedy-6.5 over 2) Passaic Tech
North II, Group IV
8)East Orange+5.5 over 1) Columbia
4)Piscataway-6 over 12) Bridgewater-Raritan
14)Ridge-24 over 6) Dickinson
2)Linden-12.5 over 7) Union
Central, Group IV
9)Manalapan+2.5 over 1) Middletown North
Jackson/Howell over 13) Brick Memorial
3)North Brunswick+4.5 over 6) Trenton
2)East Brunswick-0.5 over 10) Rancocas Valley
South, Group IV
1)Williamstown-10.5 over 8) Atlantic City
4)Lenape-7.5 over 5) Winslow
6)Eastern-1.5 over 3) Oakcrest
2) Cherry Hill East-11.5 over 7) Shawnee
Non-Public B
8)Marist-16 over 9) St. Mary's Rutherford
5)Gill St. Bernards-52 over 12) Saddle River Day
13)Newark Academy-6.5 over 4) Dwight-Englewood
3)Montclair Kimberley-7 over 14) Oratory
11)St. Mary's Jersey City-5.5 over 6) Morristown-Beard
7)Hudson Catholic-27 over 10) Montclair Immaculate
2)St. Anthony-46.5 over 15) Morris Catholic
8)Moorestown Friends+0.5 over 9) Sacred Heart
7)Holy Cross-18.5 over 10) Wardlaw-Hartridge
Game of the Day:10) Rancocas Valley at 2) East Brunswick
Honorable Mentions:16) Bridgeton at 9) Pt. Boro
8) East Orange at 1) Columbia
7) Union at 2) Linden
9) Manalapan at 1) Middletown North
6) Trenton at 3) North Brunswick
Now onto the college hardwood...
Atlantic Sun Quarterfinals(continues tomorrow)
1)Belmont over 8) Kennesaw State
5)Mercer over 4) Lipscomb
3)Jacksonville over 6) North Florida
2)ETSU over 7) Campbell
Ohio Valley First Round
5)Tennessee State over 8) UT-Martin
6)Eastern Kentucky over 7) Southeast Missouri
Patriot League Quarterfinals
1)Bucknell over 8) Army
4)Lehigh over 5) Navy
6)Lafayette over 3) Holy Cross
2) American over 7) Colgate
Group I Predictions
North I-7-1
North II-8-0
Central-8-0
South 8-0
31-1 Overall
Group II Predictions
North I-8-0
North II-7-1
Central-8-0
South-7-1
30-2 Overall
Group III Predictions
North I-5-3
North II-7-1
Central-7-1
South 6-2
25-7 Overall
Group IV Predictions
North I-7-1
North II-6-2
Central-? Can't find result for Jackson/Howell Game (either 6-2/7-1)
South-8-0
27-5/28-4
Non-Public North A Predictions
5-1
Non-Public South A Predictions
4-0
Non-Public South B Predictions
1-0
123-16/124-15 Overall
Yesterday also started the College Basketball Conference Tournament Season in the Big South and Horizon Leagues. There was a huge upset as #7 seed High Point took down #2 seed Liberty. Coastal Carolina at 27-4 certainly looks like even more of a lock now to go into the NCAA tourney for their first time in nearly 20 years.
3-1 Big South Quarterfinals
4-0 Horizon League First Round
7-1 Overall
Now onto today's picks in Group II, Group IV and Non-Public B as well as my picks for tonight's conference tournament games.
North I, Group II
1)Pascack Hills-5.5 over 8) Englewood
4)Elmwood Park+1 over 5) Hopatcong
6)Manchester Regional-12 over 3) Mountain Lakes
2)Pequannock-12 over 10) Lenape Valley
North II, Group II
1)Newark Central-18.5 over 8) Cliffside Park
13)West Essex+0.5 over 5) Rutherford
3)Ridgefield Park-7.5 over 11) Hanover Park
10)Newark Tech+2.5 over 2) Madison
Central, Group II
1)Raritan-11.5 over 8) Matawan
5)Shabazz-7 over 4) Governor Livingston
6)Carteret+3 over 3) Rumson
2)Ewing-15 over 7) Roselle
South, Group II
16)Bridgeton-2.5 over 9) Pt. Boro
4)Collingswood+4 over 5) Medford Tech
6)Haddonfield-9.5 over 3) Cinnaminson
2)Middle Twp.-20.5 over 7) Willingboro
North I, Group IV
9)Paterson Eastside-7.5 over 1) Livingston
4)Roxbury-4 over 12) Union City
11)Montclair-5 over 14) Ridgewood
10)Paterson Kennedy-6.5 over 2) Passaic Tech
North II, Group IV
8)East Orange+5.5 over 1) Columbia
4)Piscataway-6 over 12) Bridgewater-Raritan
14)Ridge-24 over 6) Dickinson
2)Linden-12.5 over 7) Union
Central, Group IV
9)Manalapan+2.5 over 1) Middletown North
Jackson/Howell over 13) Brick Memorial
3)North Brunswick+4.5 over 6) Trenton
2)East Brunswick-0.5 over 10) Rancocas Valley
South, Group IV
1)Williamstown-10.5 over 8) Atlantic City
4)Lenape-7.5 over 5) Winslow
6)Eastern-1.5 over 3) Oakcrest
2) Cherry Hill East-11.5 over 7) Shawnee
Non-Public B
8)Marist-16 over 9) St. Mary's Rutherford
5)Gill St. Bernards-52 over 12) Saddle River Day
13)Newark Academy-6.5 over 4) Dwight-Englewood
3)Montclair Kimberley-7 over 14) Oratory
11)St. Mary's Jersey City-5.5 over 6) Morristown-Beard
7)Hudson Catholic-27 over 10) Montclair Immaculate
2)St. Anthony-46.5 over 15) Morris Catholic
8)Moorestown Friends+0.5 over 9) Sacred Heart
7)Holy Cross-18.5 over 10) Wardlaw-Hartridge
Game of the Day:10) Rancocas Valley at 2) East Brunswick
Honorable Mentions:16) Bridgeton at 9) Pt. Boro
8) East Orange at 1) Columbia
7) Union at 2) Linden
9) Manalapan at 1) Middletown North
6) Trenton at 3) North Brunswick
Now onto the college hardwood...
Atlantic Sun Quarterfinals(continues tomorrow)
1)Belmont over 8) Kennesaw State
5)Mercer over 4) Lipscomb
3)Jacksonville over 6) North Florida
2)ETSU over 7) Campbell
Ohio Valley First Round
5)Tennessee State over 8) UT-Martin
6)Eastern Kentucky over 7) Southeast Missouri
Patriot League Quarterfinals
1)Bucknell over 8) Army
4)Lehigh over 5) Navy
6)Lafayette over 3) Holy Cross
2) American over 7) Colgate
Monday, February 28, 2011
Groups II and IV Predictions-First Round
Unfortunately, I fell behind in my previews so I'm just going to jump forward to the predictions. Not like the previews missed much. Obviously Non-Public A and B's front runners are predictably Seton Hall Prep and St. Ant's/Pat's. In Group IV, the favorite is Linden. Group III is seemingly a tossup with Neptune, Kingsway, Plainfield, Newark East Side all having shots. But anyway, today starts the state tournament and here are my predictions for each game. In parentheses is a -number which indicates how much the team is favored by on Born Power Index, the site I said gives high school spreads. I'll give a game of the day and upset I can see happening too. I'll update the standings after each day.
North I, Group II
1) Pascack Hills-20.5 over 16) New Milford
8) Englewood-22.5 over 9) North Warren
5) Hopatcong-18.5 over 12) Pompton Lakes
4) Elmwood Park -7.5 over 13) Westwood
3) Mountain Lakes-18 over 14) Newton
6) Manchester Regional-11.5 over 11) Ramsey
10) Lenape Valley-12 over 7) Wallkill Valley
2) Pequannock-11.5 over 15) River Dell
North II, Group II
1) Newark Central-27.5 over 16) Parsippany
8) Cliffside Park-8 over 9) Garfield
5) Rutherford-3.5 over 12) Lincoln
4) Orange-14 over 13) West Essex
3) Ridgefield Park-8 over 14) Caldwell
11) Hanover Park-7.5 over 6) Hacksettstown
10) Newark Tech-28.5 over 7) Bernards
2) Madison-16.5 over 15) Fort Lee
Central, Group II
1) Raritan-29.5 over 16) Johnson
8) Matawan-23.5 over 9) Middlesex
5) Shabazz-13 over 12) Delaware Valley
4) Governor Livingston-18 over 13) North Plainfield
3) Rumson-28 over 14) Spotswood
6) Carteret-16.5 over 11) Robbinsville
7) Roselle-5 over 10) Shore
2) Ewing-28.5 over 15) Hillside
South, Group II
1) Lakewood-14 over 16) Bridgeton
8) Haddon Heights+0.5 over 9) Pt. Pleasant Boro
5) Medford Tech-9.5 over 12) Pleasantville
4) Collingswood-11.5 over 13) Overbrook
3) Cinnaminson-15 over 14) Sterling
6) Haddonfield-31 over 11) Barnegat
7) Willingboro+2 over 10) Lower Cape May
2) Middle Twp.-36.5 over 15) Pennsauken Tech
North I, Group IV
1) Livingston-12 over 16) Morristown
9) Paterson Eastside-10.5 over 8) Bloomfield
5) Hacksensack-5 over 12) North Bergen
4) Roxbury-8 over 13) North Bergen
14) Ridgefield+2 over 3) Memorial
11) Montclair-5 over 6) Vernon
10) Paterson Kennedy-3 over 7) Morris Knolls
2) Passaich Tech-8 over 15) Passaic
North II, Group IV
1) Columbia-17.5 over 16) Watchung Hills
8) East Orange-13.5 over 9) Bayonne
5) Franklin+2.5 over 12) Bridgewater-Raritan
4) Piscataway-8.5 over 13) Westfield
14) Ridge-17 over 3) North Hunterdon
11) Woodbridge-6.5 over 6) Dickinson
7) Union-13 over 10) Perth Amboy
2) Linden-28.5 over 15) Hunterdon Central
Central, Group IV
1) Middletown North-6.5 over 16) Freehold Twp.
9) Manalapan-5.5 over 8) West Windsor North
12) Howell-6 over 5) Jackson
4) West Windsor South-6 over 13) Brick Memorial
3) North Brunswick+7 over 14) Pennsauken
6) Trenton+1 over 11) Montgomery
10) Rancocas Valley+1.5 over 7) Hillsborough
2) East Brunswick-13.5 over 15) South Brunswick
South, Group IV
1) Williamstown-12.5 over 16) Vineland
8) Atlantic City-2 over 9) Clearview
5) Winslow-8.5 over 12) Toms River South
4) Lenape-13 over 13) Triton
3) Oakcrest-5 over 14) Millville
6) Eastern-17.5 over 11) Southern
7) Shawnee-9.5 over 10) Absegami
2) Cherry Hill East-21.5 over 15) Egg Harbor
Game of the Day:10) Rancocas Valley at 7) Hillsborough
Honorable Mention:12) Bridgewater-Raritan at 5) Franklin
Upset of the Day: North Brunswick over Pennsauken
So there are my picks for today. Tomorrow I will be back picking the first round games for Groups I, III and Non-Public A.
North I, Group II
1) Pascack Hills-20.5 over 16) New Milford
8) Englewood-22.5 over 9) North Warren
5) Hopatcong-18.5 over 12) Pompton Lakes
4) Elmwood Park -7.5 over 13) Westwood
3) Mountain Lakes-18 over 14) Newton
6) Manchester Regional-11.5 over 11) Ramsey
10) Lenape Valley-12 over 7) Wallkill Valley
2) Pequannock-11.5 over 15) River Dell
North II, Group II
1) Newark Central-27.5 over 16) Parsippany
8) Cliffside Park-8 over 9) Garfield
5) Rutherford-3.5 over 12) Lincoln
4) Orange-14 over 13) West Essex
3) Ridgefield Park-8 over 14) Caldwell
11) Hanover Park-7.5 over 6) Hacksettstown
10) Newark Tech-28.5 over 7) Bernards
2) Madison-16.5 over 15) Fort Lee
Central, Group II
1) Raritan-29.5 over 16) Johnson
8) Matawan-23.5 over 9) Middlesex
5) Shabazz-13 over 12) Delaware Valley
4) Governor Livingston-18 over 13) North Plainfield
3) Rumson-28 over 14) Spotswood
6) Carteret-16.5 over 11) Robbinsville
7) Roselle-5 over 10) Shore
2) Ewing-28.5 over 15) Hillside
South, Group II
1) Lakewood-14 over 16) Bridgeton
8) Haddon Heights+0.5 over 9) Pt. Pleasant Boro
5) Medford Tech-9.5 over 12) Pleasantville
4) Collingswood-11.5 over 13) Overbrook
3) Cinnaminson-15 over 14) Sterling
6) Haddonfield-31 over 11) Barnegat
7) Willingboro+2 over 10) Lower Cape May
2) Middle Twp.-36.5 over 15) Pennsauken Tech
North I, Group IV
1) Livingston-12 over 16) Morristown
9) Paterson Eastside-10.5 over 8) Bloomfield
5) Hacksensack-5 over 12) North Bergen
4) Roxbury-8 over 13) North Bergen
14) Ridgefield+2 over 3) Memorial
11) Montclair-5 over 6) Vernon
10) Paterson Kennedy-3 over 7) Morris Knolls
2) Passaich Tech-8 over 15) Passaic
North II, Group IV
1) Columbia-17.5 over 16) Watchung Hills
8) East Orange-13.5 over 9) Bayonne
5) Franklin+2.5 over 12) Bridgewater-Raritan
4) Piscataway-8.5 over 13) Westfield
14) Ridge-17 over 3) North Hunterdon
11) Woodbridge-6.5 over 6) Dickinson
7) Union-13 over 10) Perth Amboy
2) Linden-28.5 over 15) Hunterdon Central
Central, Group IV
1) Middletown North-6.5 over 16) Freehold Twp.
9) Manalapan-5.5 over 8) West Windsor North
12) Howell-6 over 5) Jackson
4) West Windsor South-6 over 13) Brick Memorial
3) North Brunswick+7 over 14) Pennsauken
6) Trenton+1 over 11) Montgomery
10) Rancocas Valley+1.5 over 7) Hillsborough
2) East Brunswick-13.5 over 15) South Brunswick
South, Group IV
1) Williamstown-12.5 over 16) Vineland
8) Atlantic City-2 over 9) Clearview
5) Winslow-8.5 over 12) Toms River South
4) Lenape-13 over 13) Triton
3) Oakcrest-5 over 14) Millville
6) Eastern-17.5 over 11) Southern
7) Shawnee-9.5 over 10) Absegami
2) Cherry Hill East-21.5 over 15) Egg Harbor
Game of the Day:10) Rancocas Valley at 7) Hillsborough
Honorable Mention:12) Bridgewater-Raritan at 5) Franklin
Upset of the Day: North Brunswick over Pennsauken
So there are my picks for today. Tomorrow I will be back picking the first round games for Groups I, III and Non-Public A.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Groups II and III Preview
Back again with a preview of Groups II and III today. I never gave my predictions for the GMC Semis yesterday, but I would've went 2-0 with St. Joe's and Piscataway advancing to the final tomorrow night at Rutgers. Anyway onto Group II...
The Favorites
North I, Group II-No one
North II, Group II-Newark Central
Central, Group II-Ewing, Raritan
South, Group II-Middle Twp, Haddonfield, Lakewood
Dark Horses
North I, Group II-Manchester Regional
North II, Group II-Newark Tech, Orange
Central, Group II-Rumson-Fair Haven
South, Group II-Cinnaminson, Lower Cape May
Long Shots
North I, Group II-Pascack Hills, Englewood, Hopatcong, Pequannock, Mountain Lakes, Elmwood Park
North II, Group II-Madison, Ridgefield Park, Rutherford, Cliffside Park
Central, Group II-Shabazz, Matawan, Governor Livingston, Carteret, Roselle
South, Group II-While there are a couple clear favorites in South Group II, the rest of the bracket perhaps might be the most contentious in the state. There are 8 teams ranked within 8 points of each other. Those long shots would be Lower Cape May, Willingboro, Pt Pleasant Boro, Bridgeton, Haddon Heights, Collingswood, Pleasantville, and Sterling
No Shot
North I, Group II-Wallkill Valley, North Warren, Lenape Valley, Ramsey, Pompton Lakes, Westwood, Newton, River Dell, New Milford
North II, Group II-Hackettstown, Bernards, Garfield, Hanover Park, Lincoln, West Essex, Caldwell, Fort Lee, Parsippany
Central, Group II-Middlesex, Shore, Robbinsville, Delaware Valley, North Plainfield, Spotswood, Hillside, Johnson
South, Group II-Medford Tech, Barnegat, Overbrook, Pennsauken Tech
Most of the favorites in Group II are very similar. They all ahve decent guards but the area where they most stand out is their height. Teams like Lakewood have multiple guys 6'4 or taller. Newark Central blew out most of their Essex County competition, but lost by 45 to a little above average team in Camden Catholic. They lost by 7 to Paramus Catholic, so they have experience playing good teams. They do have a loaded team though, with 5 guys having 177 or more points this season. Ramon Johnson, Patrick Cole and Daquan Jones are the stars of this team and ahve helped give Central a 22-5 record. They have a very very favorable sectional draw and shouldn't really receive much of a test from anyone. All three of them are seniors as well which will make them an even tougher out knowing there's no tomorrow. I would be shocked if they didn't represent North I/North II in the sectional final.
A team that has really come a long way in a short amount of time is Ewing. They have been one of the top seeds continuously over the last few years or so. Another interesting thing is the fact as far as I know, the coach is the only woman I've seen coach a boys high school basketball game, so she serves as a type of mother figure to the players, some of which come from broken homes and poorer families. They are another team who shouldn't get tested till Rumson in the sectional semis and who knows how much they'll have left in them after making an improbable run to the Shore Conference final as a 13 seed. Ewing is a very athletic talented team and matches up well against most teams they would see. Dontae' Jones and Darryl Griffin are their best players and are the main reasons they are 20-4. Jones is a 6-5 junior forward so I'm sure he's receiving division 1 looks and Griffin is a fast guard who is capable of having big games.
What could be the Shore Conference Champs a day from tonight is Raritan. Winning the Shore Conference is a hell of an accomplishment yet they still seem like they are flying under the radar and people are underestimating them. Looking at their draw however, I feel their chance for an upset is higher than Ewing's. The emotional run to the championship for Raritan has to had take a toll on them and I think they could be prime for an upset in the second or third round vs. Matawan or Shabazz. On paper, you have to like their chances to potentially win it all. But teams who win counties rarely go deep in states and I just think this team may fall on its face.
North I, Group II
North II, Group II
Central, Group II
South, Group II
The Favorites
North I, Group II-No one
North II, Group II-Newark Central
Central, Group II-Ewing, Raritan
South, Group II-Middle Twp, Haddonfield, Lakewood
Dark Horses
North I, Group II-Manchester Regional
North II, Group II-Newark Tech, Orange
Central, Group II-Rumson-Fair Haven
South, Group II-Cinnaminson, Lower Cape May
Long Shots
North I, Group II-Pascack Hills, Englewood, Hopatcong, Pequannock, Mountain Lakes, Elmwood Park
North II, Group II-Madison, Ridgefield Park, Rutherford, Cliffside Park
Central, Group II-Shabazz, Matawan, Governor Livingston, Carteret, Roselle
South, Group II-While there are a couple clear favorites in South Group II, the rest of the bracket perhaps might be the most contentious in the state. There are 8 teams ranked within 8 points of each other. Those long shots would be Lower Cape May, Willingboro, Pt Pleasant Boro, Bridgeton, Haddon Heights, Collingswood, Pleasantville, and Sterling
No Shot
North I, Group II-Wallkill Valley, North Warren, Lenape Valley, Ramsey, Pompton Lakes, Westwood, Newton, River Dell, New Milford
North II, Group II-Hackettstown, Bernards, Garfield, Hanover Park, Lincoln, West Essex, Caldwell, Fort Lee, Parsippany
Central, Group II-Middlesex, Shore, Robbinsville, Delaware Valley, North Plainfield, Spotswood, Hillside, Johnson
South, Group II-Medford Tech, Barnegat, Overbrook, Pennsauken Tech
Most of the favorites in Group II are very similar. They all ahve decent guards but the area where they most stand out is their height. Teams like Lakewood have multiple guys 6'4 or taller. Newark Central blew out most of their Essex County competition, but lost by 45 to a little above average team in Camden Catholic. They lost by 7 to Paramus Catholic, so they have experience playing good teams. They do have a loaded team though, with 5 guys having 177 or more points this season. Ramon Johnson, Patrick Cole and Daquan Jones are the stars of this team and ahve helped give Central a 22-5 record. They have a very very favorable sectional draw and shouldn't really receive much of a test from anyone. All three of them are seniors as well which will make them an even tougher out knowing there's no tomorrow. I would be shocked if they didn't represent North I/North II in the sectional final.
A team that has really come a long way in a short amount of time is Ewing. They have been one of the top seeds continuously over the last few years or so. Another interesting thing is the fact as far as I know, the coach is the only woman I've seen coach a boys high school basketball game, so she serves as a type of mother figure to the players, some of which come from broken homes and poorer families. They are another team who shouldn't get tested till Rumson in the sectional semis and who knows how much they'll have left in them after making an improbable run to the Shore Conference final as a 13 seed. Ewing is a very athletic talented team and matches up well against most teams they would see. Dontae' Jones and Darryl Griffin are their best players and are the main reasons they are 20-4. Jones is a 6-5 junior forward so I'm sure he's receiving division 1 looks and Griffin is a fast guard who is capable of having big games.
What could be the Shore Conference Champs a day from tonight is Raritan. Winning the Shore Conference is a hell of an accomplishment yet they still seem like they are flying under the radar and people are underestimating them. Looking at their draw however, I feel their chance for an upset is higher than Ewing's. The emotional run to the championship for Raritan has to had take a toll on them and I think they could be prime for an upset in the second or third round vs. Matawan or Shabazz. On paper, you have to like their chances to potentially win it all. But teams who win counties rarely go deep in states and I just think this team may fall on its face.
North I, Group II
North II, Group II
Central, Group II
South, Group II
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Group I Preview
Before I preview the state basketball tournament in Group I, I just wanted to say I went 2-2 predicting games in the GMC Tournament the other day. Cardinal McCarrick wound up pulling the 6 over 3 upset as they defeated East Brunswick 64-62 as time expired on a layup on freshman Marques Townes. I actually uploaded the clip to YouTube so you can see it there. I did get the middle 2 games right at St. Joe's defeated Perth Amboy 72-62 and Bishop Ahr beat JFK 69-57. Piscataway won the last game over South Brunswick 52-43. So the semifinals are #1 Piscataway vs. #5 Bishop Ahr and #2 St. Joe's vs. #6 Cardinal McCarrick. Groups I and III do not start play until next Tuesday, but up until Sunday I'll preview with a group a day and since these are the smallest schools, we'll start from here. I'll categorize the teams in 4 different ways--the favorites, the dark horses, the long shots, no shot. Keep in mind this is for the entire group, next week I'll give my individual game predictions which will talk about the 4 sections a little more.
The Favorites
North I, Group I-None
North II, Group I-None
Central, Group I-Point Pleasant Beach, Asbury Park, New Egypt
South, Group I-Pitman, Paulsboro, Penns Grove
The Darkhorses
North I, Group I-None
North II, Group I-Hoboken, Newark University
Central, Group I-Florence, Burlington City
South, Group I-Salem, Woodbury, Lindenwold
Long Shots
North I, Group I-None
North II, Group I-Bloomfield Tech, New Providence, Dayton, Weequahic, Newark Vocational
Central, Group I-Bound Brook
South, Group I-None
No Shot
North I, Group I-I use a website which gives "high school spreads" for games and there are 18 teams in Group I higher than the top team here. This section has no chance for a group title. The teams are Wood-Ridge, Verona, Cresskill, Wallington, Saddle Brook, Bogota, Park Ridge, Emerson Boro, Palisades Park, Becton, Midland Park, Leonia, Sussex Tech, West Caldwell Tech, Ridgefield, and Hasbrouck Heights.
North II, Group I-Dunellen, North 13th Street Vo-Tech, Weehawken, North Arlington, Roselle Park, Whippany Park, Glen Ridge, Secaucus, Arts
Central, Group I-Piscataway Tech, South Hunterdon, East Brunswick Tech, Academy Charter, Metuchen, South River, Keyport, Perth Amboy Tech, Highland Park, Palmyra
South, Group I-Gloucester City, Audubon, Haddon Township, Camden Charter, Schalick, Wildwood, Clayton, Maple Shade, Glassboro, Gateway
Just letting everyone know I spent the last hour and a half typing or so previewing the 6 favorites and of course, it had trouble saving so when I left the page thinking it had automatically saved. It took me back to just this. I will be back tomorrow with more elaborate previews of the other Groups.
The Favorites
North I, Group I-None
North II, Group I-None
Central, Group I-Point Pleasant Beach, Asbury Park, New Egypt
South, Group I-Pitman, Paulsboro, Penns Grove
The Darkhorses
North I, Group I-None
North II, Group I-Hoboken, Newark University
Central, Group I-Florence, Burlington City
South, Group I-Salem, Woodbury, Lindenwold
Long Shots
North I, Group I-None
North II, Group I-Bloomfield Tech, New Providence, Dayton, Weequahic, Newark Vocational
Central, Group I-Bound Brook
South, Group I-None
No Shot
North I, Group I-I use a website which gives "high school spreads" for games and there are 18 teams in Group I higher than the top team here. This section has no chance for a group title. The teams are Wood-Ridge, Verona, Cresskill, Wallington, Saddle Brook, Bogota, Park Ridge, Emerson Boro, Palisades Park, Becton, Midland Park, Leonia, Sussex Tech, West Caldwell Tech, Ridgefield, and Hasbrouck Heights.
North II, Group I-Dunellen, North 13th Street Vo-Tech, Weehawken, North Arlington, Roselle Park, Whippany Park, Glen Ridge, Secaucus, Arts
Central, Group I-Piscataway Tech, South Hunterdon, East Brunswick Tech, Academy Charter, Metuchen, South River, Keyport, Perth Amboy Tech, Highland Park, Palmyra
South, Group I-Gloucester City, Audubon, Haddon Township, Camden Charter, Schalick, Wildwood, Clayton, Maple Shade, Glassboro, Gateway
Just letting everyone know I spent the last hour and a half typing or so previewing the 6 favorites and of course, it had trouble saving so when I left the page thinking it had automatically saved. It took me back to just this. I will be back tomorrow with more elaborate previews of the other Groups.
Friday, February 18, 2011
GMC Quarterfinals Preview
Over the next few weeks, my blogs will be primarily previews and predictions of the upcoming New Jersey high school basketball tournament, Conference Tournaments in the NCAA and finally the NCAA Basketball Tournament. I actually heard some pretty cool news the other day that I'm looking forward to and that is because the NCAA Tournament is now on 4 seperate stations, other channels besides CBS can air games and not have to worry about regularly scheduled programming, so what that means is now in the Round of 32, games instead of stopping around 9 or 10 on Saturday and 7 on Sunday, are now going to midnight. The second round is usually way too rushed to me and I've always hated the national early game followed by 3 in the second window then 4 in the final window on Sunday. Fortunately over the last couple years, that window hasn't had great games but a few come to my mind-the Purdue-Texas A&M game last year, Kentucky-UAB a few years back, etc. but if there was ever a day with a lot of great games, we wouldn't be able to see it because they can only show you one game at a time. There is no more of that fortunately, and you can view any game you want. Anyway, this is the new configuartion of Saturday/Sunday viewing times.
Saturday-12, 2:30, 5, 7:30 on CBS, 6 and 8 on TBS, 7 and 9:30 on TNT
sunday-12, 2:30 and 5 on CBS, 6 and 8 on TBS, 7 and 9:30 on TNT, 7:30 on TRUTV
I personally love the idea that as of 6PM Sunday, only 3 games will be completed or so and those will be games everyuone can watch since those are the only ones going on then. Then with the 5 and 6 PM ones you can go back and forth, as with the 7, 7:30 and 8, before finishing up watching the late night 9:30 game.
Obviously, as you can tell by now, I'm a big fan of basketball at all 3 levels-high school, college and professional. I still scorekeep relatively frequently for my high school, film, announce and scorekeep for Monmouth and watch college basketball frequently as well as the pros. About now each year is the county tournaments across the state and here I will preview Middlesex County's Elite Eight. The quarterfinals are Sunday and whoever's around should drop by. The games will be a lot of fun. Here's the schedule...
12:00-#3 East Brunswick vs. #6 Cardinal McCarrick
1:30-#2 St. Joe's vs. #7 Perth Amboy
4:00-#5 Bishop Ahr vs. #13 John F. Kennedy
5:30-#1 Piscataway vs. #9 South Brunswick
#3 East Brunswick vs. #6 Cardinal McCarrick-To people around the county, this is probably the best game on paper. Both teams have done phenomonal in conference--East Brunswick went 17-3 while Cardinal McCarrick went 13-5. Cardinal McCarrick, however, has stumbled to the finish line winning just 3 of their last 6, although those losses were to the 1 seed Piscataway, the 4 seed North Brunswick(who was upset last night), and a much improved Roselle Catholic team. East Brunswick, however, plays in the Red Division, which is overall stronger with 5 of the remaining 8 teams still alive residing in that division. McCarrick remains the only team left in the White Division. Bishop Ahr and JFK are the remaining teams in the Blue. I also believe this is one of the stronger teams for East Brunswick in recent memory. A deep run in this tournament will likely make them a top 20 team and as it is they are currently ranked 4th in the state in Group IV, which is always loaded with great teams. McCarrick has also had great teams recently and have become one of the powerhouses in Non-Public South B, but they are far from the team they were a couple years back when they had both Mike Burwell who's playing at South Florida right now and Vince Rosario, who's playing at Central Connecticut State. Both teams are similarly experienced, but I believe East Brunswick is just a deeper team this year and will find a way to pull it out, especially after Cardinal McCarrick just had a thrilling double overtime win against Colonia on Thursday night, I'm not sure if they have it in them to pull a close one out today. Going in if they'd have won in regulation against Colonia I probably would've picked them, but East Brunswick this year has a deep enough team and scoring from enough places to get the job done here in a big spot. I think a key player in this game will be East Brunswick's Rob Ukawuba who is only a sophomore but has come a long way this season and really has had great numbers in some games. He is one of the taller players on the team and gives East Brunswick the inside presence they need for a predominantly guard oriented perimeter shooting team. Cardinal McCarrick has relied on guys like Charlie Gorman and Ahmid Williams all season to lead the Eagles to victory and I expect it to eb the same way this game. Ahmid Williams has to play one of the games like I've seen him play at Monroe and I think McCarrick can win. The problem in this game though I see for them is that McCarrick is a traditionally higher scoring team while East Brunswick is a lower scoring team. I think East Brunswick will play a better defensive game and find a way to beat Cardinal McCarrick. Their lowest point total this season is 49, followed by scores in the mid 50's or higher. I think EB advances to the semis in a close one.
Prediction:East Brunswick 56, Cardinal McCarrick 51
#2 St Joe's vs. #7 Perth Amboy-As a St. Joe's alum and still their scorekeeper, this game scares me. Just 3 weeks ago, on our home court, we faced a chance to lose to this Perth Amboy Panthers team and ultimately prevailed in overtime. But just like the 38-35 win for the Patriots over the Giants to end the regular season back in 2007, it made Perth Amboy realize they can win against us. We are however, a stronger team than them, in pretty much every area but depth and experience. Our coach, Dave Turco, to me, is one of the best coaches in the state and his level of preparation and knowledge for a high school level is staggering. I don't know if he's done them this season, but over the past few years, he prepared elaborate scouting reports to his players talking about strengths, weaknesses, etc. I think Perth Amboy's coach, Edwin Santana, is a pretty solid coach too and because all of his team is Spanish he communicates with them that way, which I definitely believe is an advantage. This may be a game, however, Perth Amboy's seniors have been anticipating for a while. The last few years they haven't been very good but this year, they are over .500 again and have a decent seed in states though it is against the Union Farmers. So they may have been waiting for this day to come when they have a chance to pull off the upset in a big spot. They have 9 seniors while St. Joe's has just 4. However, 2 of the players, not seniors for St. Joe's are all GMC players Danny Brix and Quenton DeCosey. They combined for 43 points the other night in their 83-40 win vs. Metuchen and will continue to be integral components in the county and state tournament. I just don't think Perth Amboy has an answer for both Danny and Quenton. Quenton's as good as a player I've seen on the high school level taking it to the hoop and getting second and third rebound chances. The sky is really the limit for him as long as he keeps his head on straight and doesn't act selfish. He is a junior right now but he is getting some very high profile looks from Syracuse and Notre Dame I've heard. Danny also I think is definitely good enough to go division I as well and it is this combo that will make St. Joe's tough to beat this time of year. To me, they have 2 losses rather than 4 on the year. The East Brunswick game the first time was atrocious--awful officiating. How do you not put Quenton at the line one time when he averages a few free throws a game and seemingly is always near the basket? That game was also 2 days before Christmas so the focus might not have been there. The Colonia loss too I don't really count because it was made up on very short notice which we never play well in, and Colonia's a tough place to play at in general. Piscataway was probably one of the worst games I've ever seen St. Joe's play and we still almost won. The tide would have turned if the refs didn't make an egregious error and noticed the 6 men on the court which would've given St. Joe's the ball and 2 free throws on a technical to cut the lead to 3 from 5. And the Hun loss just the other day was a bad one. We looked good for the first 3 quarters but forgot to seal the deal and lost by 4. A big problem with Perth Amboy is their lack of big men. They have good guards like Kearny Canella and Jorge Jimenez, but outside of Wancel Arias and David Rogers, they are lacking in that spot. I just think St. Joe's defense will be too much to handle in this spot and even if Brix or DeCosey are off, expect guys like Kevin Waitikovich, Nick Straughn and Jimbo Long to pick up the load for us. We never start out well in the quarterfinals and I expect the same today, but ultimately we will eventually pick up the pieces at some point in this game, cruise to a relatively easy victory and make a statement to show we're more than ready to defend our county title from last year.
Prediction:St. Joe's 63, Perth Amboy 46
#5 Bishop Ahr vs. #13 John F. Kennedy-I find it particularly interesting here Kennedy is 12-6 and a 13 seed. Remember Piscataway is the 1 with a 13-6 record although the teams they've played are far better. Kennedy has 2 awful losses on paper, the 31-28 loss to Middlesex at home and the 23 point loss at Carteret after beating them by 9 earlier in the season. First time around this season, Bishop Ahr won by 20. The second time around, Bishop Ahr won by 3. The bottom line is prior to last game, the highest seed in the county that Kennedy beat was the 12 seed. In addition, Bishop Ahr is a parochial school and there's just no reason a parochial school should ever lose to a team with as many flaws as JFK. I'm expecting this somewhere between more scores probably a 10-15 point game, but would be shocked if Bishop Ahr didn't win. JFK's win over North Brunswick was totally unexpected and I think was more a fluke and them underestimating JFK and being over confident themselves than anything. Don't expect a reprise today.
Prediction:Bishop Ahr 67, John F. Kennedy 52
#1 Piscataway vs. #9 South Brunswick-This could wind up being game of the day and it is the last one on the schedule. You have top seeded Piscataway taking on one of their divisional opponents. South Brunswick really stumbled to the end losing 6 of 8 after starting the season 8-4. Piscataway has shown weakness at times too beating Perth Amboy just 33-20, losing at home to Perth Amboy by 12, losing to East Brunswick by 15 and a relatively medicore Immacualta team this year by 23. Piscataway and South Brunswick are usually odd teams because you can see games with great defense or with a lot of scoring. The two games this year were 46-37 and 38-35 both going in Piscataways favor. Piscataway by no means is a dominant team for a 1 seed and I personally be shocked if they won this tournament. I think whoever wins the game between us and East Brunswick wins the tournament. You could make an argument how the hell is a 13-6 team the 1 seed? East Brunswick went 17-3 in conference and was co leader atop the toughest division so they could've been the 1. South Brunswick perhaps regained a bit of confidence from the 46-41 win Thursday night against New Brunswick and I'm sure just based on the two games this year, they know they can beat the top seeded Chiefs. Neither of these 2 teams do anything well besides play tough gritty defense. These 2 are not spectacular on any means on the offensive side which is why I can see an upset here. If Tajae Sharpe or Danny Cole is off for the Chiefs today, I think guys like Kory Sanders and Nick Muha can lead South Brunswick to one of the biggest upsets of the tournament so far.
Prediction:South Brunswick 44, Piscataway 43
So based on my predictions, I have #9 South Brunswick vs. #5 Bishop Ahr and #3 East Brunswick vs. #2 St. Joe's. Those games are on Wednesday so I'll probably preview them sometime that morning. Over the next few days, I'll preview the state brackets. Here will be the schedule.
Tuesday-2/22-Group I
Wednesday-2/23-Group II/GMC Semis
Thursday-2/24-Group III
Friday-2/25-Group IV/GMC Championship
Saturday-2/26-Non-Public A
Sunday-2/27-Non-Public B
So that does it for my GMC Quarterfinals Preview and we can only hope we have a day like the Shore Conference had yesterday where all 4 games were settled by 3 or less and there was the huge upset of #8 Pt Pleasant Beach over #1 CBA as well. I'm looking forward to the games today and if you're around, you should definitely drop by.
Saturday-12, 2:30, 5, 7:30 on CBS, 6 and 8 on TBS, 7 and 9:30 on TNT
sunday-12, 2:30 and 5 on CBS, 6 and 8 on TBS, 7 and 9:30 on TNT, 7:30 on TRUTV
I personally love the idea that as of 6PM Sunday, only 3 games will be completed or so and those will be games everyuone can watch since those are the only ones going on then. Then with the 5 and 6 PM ones you can go back and forth, as with the 7, 7:30 and 8, before finishing up watching the late night 9:30 game.
Obviously, as you can tell by now, I'm a big fan of basketball at all 3 levels-high school, college and professional. I still scorekeep relatively frequently for my high school, film, announce and scorekeep for Monmouth and watch college basketball frequently as well as the pros. About now each year is the county tournaments across the state and here I will preview Middlesex County's Elite Eight. The quarterfinals are Sunday and whoever's around should drop by. The games will be a lot of fun. Here's the schedule...
12:00-#3 East Brunswick vs. #6 Cardinal McCarrick
1:30-#2 St. Joe's vs. #7 Perth Amboy
4:00-#5 Bishop Ahr vs. #13 John F. Kennedy
5:30-#1 Piscataway vs. #9 South Brunswick
#3 East Brunswick vs. #6 Cardinal McCarrick-To people around the county, this is probably the best game on paper. Both teams have done phenomonal in conference--East Brunswick went 17-3 while Cardinal McCarrick went 13-5. Cardinal McCarrick, however, has stumbled to the finish line winning just 3 of their last 6, although those losses were to the 1 seed Piscataway, the 4 seed North Brunswick(who was upset last night), and a much improved Roselle Catholic team. East Brunswick, however, plays in the Red Division, which is overall stronger with 5 of the remaining 8 teams still alive residing in that division. McCarrick remains the only team left in the White Division. Bishop Ahr and JFK are the remaining teams in the Blue. I also believe this is one of the stronger teams for East Brunswick in recent memory. A deep run in this tournament will likely make them a top 20 team and as it is they are currently ranked 4th in the state in Group IV, which is always loaded with great teams. McCarrick has also had great teams recently and have become one of the powerhouses in Non-Public South B, but they are far from the team they were a couple years back when they had both Mike Burwell who's playing at South Florida right now and Vince Rosario, who's playing at Central Connecticut State. Both teams are similarly experienced, but I believe East Brunswick is just a deeper team this year and will find a way to pull it out, especially after Cardinal McCarrick just had a thrilling double overtime win against Colonia on Thursday night, I'm not sure if they have it in them to pull a close one out today. Going in if they'd have won in regulation against Colonia I probably would've picked them, but East Brunswick this year has a deep enough team and scoring from enough places to get the job done here in a big spot. I think a key player in this game will be East Brunswick's Rob Ukawuba who is only a sophomore but has come a long way this season and really has had great numbers in some games. He is one of the taller players on the team and gives East Brunswick the inside presence they need for a predominantly guard oriented perimeter shooting team. Cardinal McCarrick has relied on guys like Charlie Gorman and Ahmid Williams all season to lead the Eagles to victory and I expect it to eb the same way this game. Ahmid Williams has to play one of the games like I've seen him play at Monroe and I think McCarrick can win. The problem in this game though I see for them is that McCarrick is a traditionally higher scoring team while East Brunswick is a lower scoring team. I think East Brunswick will play a better defensive game and find a way to beat Cardinal McCarrick. Their lowest point total this season is 49, followed by scores in the mid 50's or higher. I think EB advances to the semis in a close one.
Prediction:East Brunswick 56, Cardinal McCarrick 51
#2 St Joe's vs. #7 Perth Amboy-As a St. Joe's alum and still their scorekeeper, this game scares me. Just 3 weeks ago, on our home court, we faced a chance to lose to this Perth Amboy Panthers team and ultimately prevailed in overtime. But just like the 38-35 win for the Patriots over the Giants to end the regular season back in 2007, it made Perth Amboy realize they can win against us. We are however, a stronger team than them, in pretty much every area but depth and experience. Our coach, Dave Turco, to me, is one of the best coaches in the state and his level of preparation and knowledge for a high school level is staggering. I don't know if he's done them this season, but over the past few years, he prepared elaborate scouting reports to his players talking about strengths, weaknesses, etc. I think Perth Amboy's coach, Edwin Santana, is a pretty solid coach too and because all of his team is Spanish he communicates with them that way, which I definitely believe is an advantage. This may be a game, however, Perth Amboy's seniors have been anticipating for a while. The last few years they haven't been very good but this year, they are over .500 again and have a decent seed in states though it is against the Union Farmers. So they may have been waiting for this day to come when they have a chance to pull off the upset in a big spot. They have 9 seniors while St. Joe's has just 4. However, 2 of the players, not seniors for St. Joe's are all GMC players Danny Brix and Quenton DeCosey. They combined for 43 points the other night in their 83-40 win vs. Metuchen and will continue to be integral components in the county and state tournament. I just don't think Perth Amboy has an answer for both Danny and Quenton. Quenton's as good as a player I've seen on the high school level taking it to the hoop and getting second and third rebound chances. The sky is really the limit for him as long as he keeps his head on straight and doesn't act selfish. He is a junior right now but he is getting some very high profile looks from Syracuse and Notre Dame I've heard. Danny also I think is definitely good enough to go division I as well and it is this combo that will make St. Joe's tough to beat this time of year. To me, they have 2 losses rather than 4 on the year. The East Brunswick game the first time was atrocious--awful officiating. How do you not put Quenton at the line one time when he averages a few free throws a game and seemingly is always near the basket? That game was also 2 days before Christmas so the focus might not have been there. The Colonia loss too I don't really count because it was made up on very short notice which we never play well in, and Colonia's a tough place to play at in general. Piscataway was probably one of the worst games I've ever seen St. Joe's play and we still almost won. The tide would have turned if the refs didn't make an egregious error and noticed the 6 men on the court which would've given St. Joe's the ball and 2 free throws on a technical to cut the lead to 3 from 5. And the Hun loss just the other day was a bad one. We looked good for the first 3 quarters but forgot to seal the deal and lost by 4. A big problem with Perth Amboy is their lack of big men. They have good guards like Kearny Canella and Jorge Jimenez, but outside of Wancel Arias and David Rogers, they are lacking in that spot. I just think St. Joe's defense will be too much to handle in this spot and even if Brix or DeCosey are off, expect guys like Kevin Waitikovich, Nick Straughn and Jimbo Long to pick up the load for us. We never start out well in the quarterfinals and I expect the same today, but ultimately we will eventually pick up the pieces at some point in this game, cruise to a relatively easy victory and make a statement to show we're more than ready to defend our county title from last year.
Prediction:St. Joe's 63, Perth Amboy 46
#5 Bishop Ahr vs. #13 John F. Kennedy-I find it particularly interesting here Kennedy is 12-6 and a 13 seed. Remember Piscataway is the 1 with a 13-6 record although the teams they've played are far better. Kennedy has 2 awful losses on paper, the 31-28 loss to Middlesex at home and the 23 point loss at Carteret after beating them by 9 earlier in the season. First time around this season, Bishop Ahr won by 20. The second time around, Bishop Ahr won by 3. The bottom line is prior to last game, the highest seed in the county that Kennedy beat was the 12 seed. In addition, Bishop Ahr is a parochial school and there's just no reason a parochial school should ever lose to a team with as many flaws as JFK. I'm expecting this somewhere between more scores probably a 10-15 point game, but would be shocked if Bishop Ahr didn't win. JFK's win over North Brunswick was totally unexpected and I think was more a fluke and them underestimating JFK and being over confident themselves than anything. Don't expect a reprise today.
Prediction:Bishop Ahr 67, John F. Kennedy 52
#1 Piscataway vs. #9 South Brunswick-This could wind up being game of the day and it is the last one on the schedule. You have top seeded Piscataway taking on one of their divisional opponents. South Brunswick really stumbled to the end losing 6 of 8 after starting the season 8-4. Piscataway has shown weakness at times too beating Perth Amboy just 33-20, losing at home to Perth Amboy by 12, losing to East Brunswick by 15 and a relatively medicore Immacualta team this year by 23. Piscataway and South Brunswick are usually odd teams because you can see games with great defense or with a lot of scoring. The two games this year were 46-37 and 38-35 both going in Piscataways favor. Piscataway by no means is a dominant team for a 1 seed and I personally be shocked if they won this tournament. I think whoever wins the game between us and East Brunswick wins the tournament. You could make an argument how the hell is a 13-6 team the 1 seed? East Brunswick went 17-3 in conference and was co leader atop the toughest division so they could've been the 1. South Brunswick perhaps regained a bit of confidence from the 46-41 win Thursday night against New Brunswick and I'm sure just based on the two games this year, they know they can beat the top seeded Chiefs. Neither of these 2 teams do anything well besides play tough gritty defense. These 2 are not spectacular on any means on the offensive side which is why I can see an upset here. If Tajae Sharpe or Danny Cole is off for the Chiefs today, I think guys like Kory Sanders and Nick Muha can lead South Brunswick to one of the biggest upsets of the tournament so far.
Prediction:South Brunswick 44, Piscataway 43
So based on my predictions, I have #9 South Brunswick vs. #5 Bishop Ahr and #3 East Brunswick vs. #2 St. Joe's. Those games are on Wednesday so I'll probably preview them sometime that morning. Over the next few days, I'll preview the state brackets. Here will be the schedule.
Tuesday-2/22-Group I
Wednesday-2/23-Group II/GMC Semis
Thursday-2/24-Group III
Friday-2/25-Group IV/GMC Championship
Saturday-2/26-Non-Public A
Sunday-2/27-Non-Public B
So that does it for my GMC Quarterfinals Preview and we can only hope we have a day like the Shore Conference had yesterday where all 4 games were settled by 3 or less and there was the huge upset of #8 Pt Pleasant Beach over #1 CBA as well. I'm looking forward to the games today and if you're around, you should definitely drop by.
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